Introduction
As we approach 2026, digital trust is no longer a supporting function of digital transformation: it is becoming its foundation. Identity, signatures, payments, AI-driven workflows, and compliance are converging into a single trust layer that will define how economies, institutions, and enterprises operate at scale.
Europe is setting the pace with eIDAS 2.0 and the European Digital Identity Wallet, while new threats such as generative-AI fraud and post-quantum risks are reshaping security expectations. At the same time, businesses and citizens demand simpler, faster, and more intuitive digital experiences. Trust must now be both stronger and invisible.
Predictions
The following twelve predictions reflect how we see this transformation unfolding in 2026: from wallets and platforms to AI agents and sovereignty. Together, they outline the next evolution of digital trust, from a set of regulated services to a strategic infrastructure for growth, resilience, and interoperability.
1. Wallets become the digital front door
By 2026, digital identity wallets will move decisively from pilots to real-world, large-scale deployment. The European Digital Identity Wallet (EUDI) will become the default entry point for citizens and businesses to access public services, financial institutions, healthcare, and regulated private services. Instead of fragmented logins, document uploads, and repeated identity checks, users will rely on a single wallet-native experience that embeds identification, authentication, and signing.
This shift is driven by eIDAS 2.0 deadlines, PSD3/PSR convergence, and the growing need for cross-border digital interactions. Beyond Europe, the “Brussels Effect” will push wallet-based identity models into Latin America and other regions seeking interoperable trust frameworks. Wallets will no longer be a feature, they will be the primary interface through which trust is exercised online.
2. From documents to data attestations
The traditional model of signing static PDF documents will give way to a new paradigm: attesting data, events, credentials, and transactions. In 2026, trust will increasingly operate at the data layer, not the document layer. Electronic signatures will evolve into interoperable data attestations that can certify datasets, API calls, IoT signals, and machine-generated events.
This transformation enables scalable machine-to-machine trust and unlocks real-time verification across finance, mobility, HR, insurance, ESG reporting, and supply chains. Wallet-based verifiable credentials and qualified electronic attributes (QEAA/EAA) will become the new “language of trust,” allowing selective disclosure, automation, and instant validation without exchanging entire documents.
3. The era of trust platform consolidation
The eIDAS Qualified Trust Service Provider (QTSP) market will undergo sharp consolidation by 2026. Rising regulatory pressure from NIS2, DORA, CRA, and post-quantum preparedness will make it increasingly difficult for small, single-country providers to survive independently. Europe is likely to move from hundreds of QTSPs to a smaller group of pan-European trust platforms.
At the same time, market demand is shifting away from isolated components – such as standalone signatures or identity checks – toward integrated, end-to-end trust platforms. Enterprises and governments no longer want products; they want fully verified processes. Providers that combine identity, signatures, mandates, onboarding, invoicing, archiving, delivery, and payments into unified platforms will emerge as the new operating systems of digital trust.
4. AI agents require verifiable identity
In 2026, AI will stop being a support tool and become the operational layer of enterprises. AI agents will read documents, verify identities, trigger workflows, reconcile invoices, manage delegations, and execute transactions. This evolution creates a fundamental trust challenge: it is no longer enough to prove who the human is, we must also prove which AI agent is acting, under which mandate, and with what limits.
Digital identity wallets will become the natural infrastructure to manage this convergence. They will store human identities, agent identities, delegated authorities, and revocation controls. QTSPs will increasingly act as notaries of the AI age, enabling qualified machine identities and auditable agent actions. Trust will shift from human-only authentication to a model that securely binds humans, machines, and transactions.
5. The business wallet becomes the enterprise OS
By 2026, the Business Wallet will emerge as the central control point for enterprise trust. Companies will move away from juggling dozens of disconnected platforms and instead manage identity, mandates, licenses, onboarding, signatures, invoicing, procurement, and payments through a single trusted environment.
Early-adopting Member States are expected to launch full-fledged European Business Wallets, enabling cross-border operations with legal certainty. For enterprises, this means faster onboarding, simplified compliance, and real-time visibility into who is authorized to act on behalf of the organization. Whoever controls the business wallet controls the enterprise relationship and, increasingly, the market.
6. Security hardens while friction disappears
The rise of generative-AI fraud and deepfakes will force a significant strengthening of identity verification by 2026. High-assurance onboarding will increasingly require biometric verification, advanced liveness detection, and hybrid on-device plus server-side validation aligned with ETSI standards such as TS 119 461.
At the same time, user friction will dramatically decrease. Passkeys, wallet-native authentication, and biometric flows will make strong assurance nearly invisible to end users. The paradox of 2026 is that security will become stricter while experiences become smoother. Trust providers that fail to balance these two forces – security and usability – will quickly fall behind.
7. Post-Quantum moves from theory to procurement
Post-quantum cryptography will enter operational reality in 2026. Public administrations, banks, and healthcare organizations will begin actively procuring PQ-ready systems, while RFPs increasingly demand hybrid certificates and cryptographic agility. The transition will be gradual, but it will start decisively.
At the same time, organizations will face a growing cryptographic management crisis. Shorter certificate lifetimes, expanding key inventories, and quantum risk will make “invisible” cryptographic assets untenable. Trust providers will play a central role in ensuring traceability, secure rotations, long-term validation, and compliance—laying the foundation for a resilient post-quantum trust infrastructure.
8. Compliance data becomes automation fuel
By 2026, e-invoicing, real-time tax reporting, and ESG disclosures will stop being static compliance obligations and become dynamic data sources for automation. Driven by initiatives such as VIDA, electronic invoices will act as real-time financial sensors, feeding AI-driven reconciliation, forecasting, anomaly detection, and risk assessment.
Similarly, ESG reporting will move beyond narrative PDFs. Verifiable data – signed IoT metrics, supply-chain attestations, digital product passports, and wallet-based credentials – will become the only credible proof of sustainability. Compliance data that cannot be verified will increasingly be considered irrelevant.
9. Experience becomes the new trust differentiator
In 2026, the competitive battlefield will shift decisively toward user experience. The market will no longer reward the most powerful biometric algorithm or the most complex compliance stack, but the solutions that remove the most friction. Enterprises and consumers alike will favor trust services that are fast, intuitive, and invisible.
Onboarding in under 60 seconds will become the benchmark for both B2C and B2B. Conversion rates, customer satisfaction, and adoption will increasingly depend on how seamlessly trust is embedded into workflows. Digital trust will no longer be perceived as a security layer: it will be experienced as ease.
10. Digital trust becomes strategic infrastructure
By 2026, digital trust will be recognized as a core geopolitical and economic infrastructure. European policymakers and enterprises will increasingly reduce dependence on non-EU identity and signature providers due to sovereignty concerns, regulatory alignment, and data governance requirements.
At the same time, digital trust will become a cornerstone of international trade. Cross-border contracts, procurement, customs, and compliance will rely on mutually recognized digital identities and trust services. QTSPs will evolve from technical providers into strategic enablers of sovereignty, interoperability, and global digital cooperation.
11. KYC and AML evolve into modular, risk-based, wallet-aware processes
By 2026, KYC must evolve beyond regulatory checklists to function as an orchestration layer across multiple onboarding use cases, risk profiles, and identification methods. No single model will fit all scenarios: retail, SMEs, corporates, and cross-border onboarding will require different combinations of controls and assurance levels.
Digital identity wallets will become an important input, enabling the reuse of verified attributes, but they will coexist with national eID systems, documents, biometrics, and ongoing risk signals. Under AMLR, effective compliance will depend on a KYC orchestrator capable of dynamically selecting, combining, and adapting these flows over time, transforming KYC from a static onboarding step into a continuous, risk-based process.
12. Payments, digital identity, and SCA converge into a trust infrastructure
Payments, digital identity, and Strong Customer Authentication will converge into a trust infrastructure, rather than remain separate compliance domains. Regulatory evolution. from PSD3/PSR to AMLR and eIDAS 2.0, defines the baseline, but the real shift will be driven by identity-first architectures capable of coordinating authentication, consent, and authorization across different risk contexts. In parallel, initiatives such as the Digital Euro and European payment schemes like EPI will accelerate this convergence, embedding high-assurance identity directly into payment flows.
Digital identity wallets will act as one of several trusted components within this architecture, alongside other authentication and risk mechanisms. In this model, SCA becomes context-aware and adaptive, and payments evolve into a native function of digital trust rather than a standalone transaction step.
Conclusion
As we look toward 2026, digital trust is no longer optional: it is becoming the infrastructure that will enable secure, seamless, and scalable interactions across public and private sectors. From identity wallets and AI agents to post‑quantum cryptography and trust‑driven payments, the next year will see trust embedded at every layer of digital life.
Organizations that embrace this evolution early will not only meet compliance requirements but also gain a strategic advantage, turning trust into a differentiator, a growth enabler, and a foundation for resilient, interoperable digital economies.
To deepen your understanding of how Qualified Trust Service Providers (QTSPs) will shape Europe’s digital future, and why this matters for your business, download the e-book “Scaling Trust: a new era for effortless, secure digital transactions.”
It offers strategic insights into eIDAS 2.0, the EUDI Wallet, data sovereignty, and the role of pan‑European QTSPs in building a trusted digital market.
